• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1329

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 22 22:42:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 222242
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222242=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-230115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1329
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0542 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021

    Areas affected...southwest North Dakota into western South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 222242Z - 230115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts remain possible this evening, mainly
    through 01 or 02Z. Coverage of severe is not expected to warrant a
    watch.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms producing strong to severe wind
    gusts and sporadic/marginal hail continues to propagate east across
    the western Dakotas. Hot temperatures over 100 F exist ahead of this
    line with a deep mixed layer. While large-scale support is weak
    beneath the upper ridge, the heated air mass, 55-60 F dewpoints, and
    deep-layer shear near 30 kt support isolated severe gust potential
    as late as 02Z. Thereafter, CIN will increase and there will be
    little nocturnal low-level jet, suggesting the threat will end. The
    latest CAMs also support this scenario, with diurnal storms ending
    between 01-02Z.

    ..Jewell/Edwards.. 07/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rb1KBTCM0tSJDqYUBxUE0zJgy5mdg7Hiuz7xoxeWaqhYiAMK2spu2mw7Pj6bZP6iWd7r07J5$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44150406 44880374 45390344 45810324 46210307 46730237
    46690148 46430086 46080048 45360071 44620164 44230233
    43990288 44010373 44150406=20



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