• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1328

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 22 22:35:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 222235
    SPC MCD 222235=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1328
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0535 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southern Arizona

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 222235Z - 230000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms are
    expected through the evening across portions of southern Arizona.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have developed in southern Arizona where temperatures are in the 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s
    yielding MLCAPE around 1500 to 2000 J/kg. The KEMX VWP shows very
    weak flow in the lowest 6 km with stronger flow above 6km. These
    storms are quite tall, with forecast EL around 12 to 13 km and IR
    satellite measurements around -65C confirming this depth. Therefore,
    this stronger flow above 6 km is likely contributing to the
    effective shear and is likely responsible for the somewhat organized
    nature of several of the cells in the past 2 hours. In fact, the
    storm in north-central Pima county has shown some supercell
    characteristics with anti-cyclonic rotation despite right (poleward)
    movement. Expect this activity and additional development over the
    next few hours with mainly a threat for severe winds.

    ..Bentley/Edwards.. 07/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uIWJW-rfCheWVE9QrSh7nfGnzWEmK3jSyXe_Ftss4Nsba4OGNGY3cEVkXbHybB7UhdoKawZp$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31611204 32521209 33061143 33341060 33370988 32990965
    32200987 31321040 31301104 31611204=20

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