• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1327

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 22 20:24:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 222024
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222024=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-222230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1327
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0324 PM CDT Thu Jul 22 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern Montana...northeastern Wyoming and
    the western Dakotas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 222024Z - 222230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms overspreading the region through 6 PM MDT
    may not become particularly organized, but could still continue to
    produce a few strong to locally severe surface gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has become increasingly
    widespread within lee surface troughing across the higher plains, as
    well as across the Black Hills vicinity, within/above a hot and
    deeply-mixed boundary-layer that appears characterized by CAPE on
    the order of 500-1000 J/kg. This appears to be aided by forcing for
    ascent associated with a weak impulse progressing through the mean
    mid/upper ridging, which likely will be maintained across the region
    into this evening. Within this regime westerly deep-layer mean flow
    and shear appear on the order of a generally modest 20-30 kt, which,
    coupled with the weak CAPE, seem likely to limit the potential for
    substantive organization. Still, storms have already produced a few
    observed strong surface gusts ranging from 39-47 kt, and this could
    continue, with perhaps an isolated severe gust or two, as activity
    develops eastward through 23-00Z.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 07/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qTVpA_Ov5uDKgCiJvrHwwlsT5Io143lTSu7f4sKVidEobQC9SddAorHIxjzPDu8Bdti9ta2l$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 48140406 48210207 44080332 44150512 46250525 48140406=20



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