• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1325

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 21 20:41:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 212041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 212040=20
    MTZ000-IDZ000-212215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1325
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 PM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021

    Areas affected...Western Montana and Northeast Idaho

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 212040Z - 212215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Convective initiation occurring amid an environment
    conducing to support a damaging wind and severe hail threat. Watch
    issuance unlikely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Regional satellite shows a broad area of cumulus
    development over portions of western Montana, likely in association
    with ascent from a mid-level short-wave trough entering the region,
    as evidenced in water vapor imagery. Additionally, strong heating in
    the wake of mid- and high-level clouds/smoke has allowed surface
    temperatures to warm into the mid 80s F, producing strong low-level
    lapse rates amid rich low-level moisture, characterized by dew point temperatures in the mid 50s F. These conditions, along with moderate
    mid-level lapse rates and cool mid-level temperatures (evident in an
    18z sounding from southwest MT) have led to sufficient
    destabilization for convective initiation, with MLCAPE near 1000
    J/kg. The aforementioned short-wave is embedded within marginally
    enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow, sufficient to produce 35-40
    kt of effective bulk shear.

    Current expectation is for storms to become more numerous in the
    next 1-2 hours. Given the aforementioned thermodynamic and kinematic conditions, storms may become organized enough to produce damaging
    winds and severe hail in the strongest cells. At this time, it does
    not appear that storm coverage will be expansive enough to warrant
    watch issuance. However, convective trends will continue to be
    monitored.

    ..Karstens/Hart.. 07/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uO4y8f-Z2U-Q2-wluMV7HjwRdLgmsVnOGMeLa4gDYAz5gjiWtX0PwbcZ81ZtdDEqkuLU1uyv$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...

    LAT...LON 45431533 47411516 48941341 48411194 45591165 45431533=20



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