• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1322

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 21 02:01:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 210201
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210201=20
    MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-210300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1322
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0901 PM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384...

    Valid 210201Z - 210300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat will likely continue for another hour
    or two across parts of northern Pennsylvania, southeast New York and
    New England. The threat should become more isolated with time this
    evening and new weather watch issuance will be unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a convective line
    located from western Pennsylvania extending northeastward across
    southeast New York into New England. The airmass ahead of the line
    is moderately unstable with the RAP showing MLCAPE mostly in the
    1000 to 1500 J/kg range. This combined with moderate deep-layer
    shear and steep low-level lapse rates will support a wind-damage
    threat early this evening with the stronger cells embedded in the
    line. This threat is expected to be most prominent over the next
    hour with some of the storms affecting areas just to the east of WW
    384. However, the boundary layer will continue to cool this evening,
    resulting in weakening instability. As a result, the severe threat
    will become more isolated and marginal with time.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tqrHKUEsM54-gVO-Rq3n30ErzVlSFJYqOcvM-yEZ1r0zzeZvnDxlEH75ejya5DQlnoEg6Xnf$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

    LAT...LON 41347384 41427671 41617790 41827814 42107803 42197721
    42157595 42887338 43867188 44537107 44487060 44127041
    43547058 42337158 41347384=20



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