Mesoscale Discussion 1322
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0901 PM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384...
Valid 210201Z - 210300Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384
SUMMARY...A wind-damage threat will likely continue for another hour
or two across parts of northern Pennsylvania, southeast New York and
New England. The threat should become more isolated with time this
evening and new weather watch issuance will be unlikely.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a convective line
located from western Pennsylvania extending northeastward across
southeast New York into New England. The airmass ahead of the line
is moderately unstable with the RAP showing MLCAPE mostly in the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range. This combined with moderate deep-layer
shear and steep low-level lapse rates will support a wind-damage
threat early this evening with the stronger cells embedded in the
line. This threat is expected to be most prominent over the next
hour with some of the storms affecting areas just to the east of WW
384. However, the boundary layer will continue to cool this evening,
resulting in weakening instability. As a result, the severe threat
will become more isolated and marginal with time.
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