• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1320

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 20 20:17:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 202017
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202017=20
    VTZ000-NYZ000-202215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1320
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0317 PM CDT Tue Jul 20 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of western through much of northern New York
    State and adjacent northern Vermont

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384...

    Valid 202017Z - 202215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An organized cluster of thunderstorms will spread across
    the St. Lawrence River through much of the Adirondacks vicinity,
    along with continuing development across and southeast of Lake
    Ontario by 5-7 PM EDT, accompanied by the risk for potentially
    damaging wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Moderate southeasterly low-level inflow of moist air
    characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg is maintaining vigorous thunderstorm development along the leading edge of an
    east-southeastward advancing, convectively driven surface cold pool.
    This continues to be aided by large-scale forcing for ascent
    associated with a 30-50 kt westerly mid/upper jet streak, and will
    overspread the upper St. Lawrence Valley through much of the
    Adirondacks region by 22-23Z. As the temperature gradient across
    the gust front increases at least a bit further, potential for
    damaging wind gusts probably will also continue to increase during
    the next hour or two.

    Farther to the southwest, thunderstorms which initiated along the
    trailing outflow boundary, and preceding lake breezes across the
    Lake Ontario vicinity, may also begin to consolidate while spreading
    into the unstable environment to the southeast of the lake. This
    too may gradually pose increasing risk for damaging wind gusts
    near/north of the Finger Lakes region through the Mohawk Valley by
    early evening.

    ..Kerr.. 07/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r5u2ssYkMZliEtdS5-V0XjGw1RILZPbRcB8G4p5KzQWt4s50sIKT9gendnNdFRnNJI0TVUV0$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 43997686 44397609 44977514 45277421 44887322 43647392
    43047508 42957641 43187737 43627813 43997686=20



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