• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1317

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 19 17:22:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 191721
    SPC MCD 191721=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1317
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 19 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...Northwestern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 191721Z - 191845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind gust threat will increase this afternoon in
    parts of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota. The
    localized threat is not expected to require a WW.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms in northeastern North
    Dakota has shown a modest increase in intensity over the last hour.
    Recent KMVX radar imagery has also shown stronger winds developing
    aloft as well. As temperatures continue to warm through the 80s to
    near 90 F this afternoon, the moist airmass ahead of the cluster
    will continue to destabilize. Forecast soundings indicate 1500-2000
    is probable by mid/late afternoon. The initial threat for damaging
    winds with this cluster may remain low, but should increase some
    this afternoon as low-level lapse rates steepen ahead of it. Drier
    air in central Minnesota and influence from convection in northern
    Minnesota will likely limit the eastward and southward extent of
    severe potential this afternoon. At this time, the threat is
    expected to remain localized and a WW is not anticipated.

    ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oTdsrdB3m1GrN0QUt42PqxUGop3rL0GrNAR5wFX0_PzRtSDSMcc_CP4ud4adfyVZUmZi9aMl$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 47829857 48249843 48419760 48089652 47599592 46999570
    46629586 46589667 46629721 46979795 47829857=20

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