• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1315

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 18 19:33:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 181933
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181932=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-182200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1315
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0232 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern CO...western/central KS...the
    TX/OK Panhandles...and northwestern OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 181932Z - 182200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Some threat for large hail and severe wind gusts may
    persist this afternoon with storms moving southward. The need for a
    watch is uncertain, but watch issuance remains possible.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have continued this afternoon across
    western/central KS in association with a remnant MCV and related
    mid-level perturbation evident in water vapor satellite imagery.
    Even though low/mid-level flow remains fairly modest, upper-level
    northwesterly winds do strengthen to around 35-45 kt. Multiple cells
    that developed earlier along an outflow boundary across far western
    KS in this regime have produced large hail up to 2 inches in
    diameter. A separate small line segment in south-central KS recorded
    a severe wind gust to 61 mph at 1915Z. Around 30-35 kt of effective
    bulk shear present over far eastern CO into western/central KS and
    vicinity should prove favorable for continued storm organization.
    MLCAPE ranging from 1500-2000 J/kg across this region should also
    sustain ongoing and new updrafts. There is some concern that ongoing
    convection may grow upscale into one or more small bowing clusters
    and pose a threat for isolated to scattered severe wind gusts as
    they move southward across western KS, the OK/TX Panhandles, and
    perhaps northwestern OK through the remainder of the afternoon.
    Watch issuance is possible, and will largely be dependent on signs
    of upscale growth into a cluster.

    ..Gleason/Dial.. 07/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!su8IkkCFPjLoZrIwh0uDLgNe7ucHTPVcAHed-5o5S-N0qCF9pHeq70tuZhEloc9R470hp1aM$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

    LAT...LON 39000269 39040191 38680142 38280043 38209961 38389907
    38209847 36699812 36119856 35849950 35850088 36290170
    36950259 37730324 38510304 39000269=20



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