• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1314

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 18 19:15:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 181914
    SPC MCD 181914=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1314
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0214 PM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast Louisiana...west-central Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 181914Z - 182115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible this
    afternoon. No WW is expected this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A loosely organized line of storm associated with a
    weak MCV in southern Arkansas is continuing to move southeastward
    into a destabilizing airmass. 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE has developed as
    a very moist boundary layer has warmed to near or above 90 F. An
    earlier cluster of storms this morning has left an outflow boundary
    across parts of central Mississippi. The greatest potential for
    damaging wind gusts will be along and southwestward of this boundary
    where storms may become slightly better organized. Overall, low-level/deep-layer shear are weak and should keep intense
    thunderstorm activity relatively localized. A few damaging downburst
    winds are possible this afternoon. The marginal and localized threat
    is not expected to require a WW.

    ..Wendt/Dial.. 07/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pI6-NH0bRoPCDkbeTEXulvCXjPtgszyxFT5ISpfLbMbIghnRHp21x_sVTPPC3QP7ATOWTa_h$=
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    LAT...LON 32689328 33249247 33809128 33869067 33438999 32898949
    32428921 32008941 31719027 31409116 31669212 31899269
    32249314 32689328=20

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