• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1313

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 18 16:14:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 181614
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181614=20
    KSZ000-181815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1313
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1114 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of western/central KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 181614Z - 181815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms may continue to pose an isolated hail/wind threat
    for the next couple of hours. Watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A band of storms associated with an MCV from earlier
    convection has persisted this morning while moving slowly southward
    from southern NE into parts of western/central KS. Low/mid-level
    flow remains rather weak across this region per the 12Z sounding
    from DDC and recent VWPs from KGLD/KUEX. Even so, these storms have
    persisted longer than most short-term guidance would suggest, and
    they will be moving into a destabilizing low-level airmass over the
    next couple of hours across western/central KS. There is also some
    modestly enhanced upper-level northwesterly flow present across this
    region, which may be aiding storm intensities to some extent. A
    couple instances of severe hail and strong/gusty winds appear
    possible in the short-term with this convection, but the lack of
    stronger deep-layer shear and boundary-layer instability should keep
    the overall severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. Accordingly,
    watch issuance is not expected at this time.

    ..Gleason/Dial.. 07/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qL5EQNji8CzT9AB4m2rvTg0PyTjo-6DrBuDjvUvAtanvvEBNvI9MJLy4_QM6F2SZPgeFVZF6$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39820064 39820008 39559958 39469898 39129851 38389859
    38089914 37960042 38210118 39000137 39460129 39820064=20



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