• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1311

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 18 00:03:23 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180003
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180003=20
    VAZ000-180130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1311
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0703 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

    Areas affected...portions of eastern and southeastern Virginia

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 180003Z - 180130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts may accompany the stronger storms
    over the next few hours. The overall severe threat is expected to be
    relatively brief and isolated.

    DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic and KAKQ radar data show a somewhat
    organized line of multicellular storms, with 35 dBZ echoes exceeding
    45 kft, roughly from Middlesex to Dinwiddie County VA. These storms
    are moving through an airmass characterized by 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and
    7 C/km sfc-3km lapse rates, supportive of occasional wet downbursts. Nonetheless, with the onset of nocturnal cooling, the severe threat
    is expected to only last for a few hours, and given limited area
    ahead of the storms, overall severe coverage is expected to remain localized/sparse.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pXlYwIn87Wuca7kwXW0mfG8d1hnrd0JZ3S9a1t3qLBs4Sc185NBDlK80uzjhkKUSluBrMxOU$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...

    LAT...LON 36797821 37657729 37827686 37757656 37487623 37167612
    36877616 36697649 36677737 36797821=20



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