• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1310

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 17 22:55:23 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 172255
    SPC MCD 172254=20 CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-18010=

    Mesoscale Discussion 1310
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0554 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central into eastern
    Pennsylvania...northern Virginia...Maryland...Delaware...New
    Jersey...southeast New York...western Massachusetts...western

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382...

    Valid 172254Z - 180100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 382. Damaging gusts will remain the primary threat, though an
    instance or two of severe hail or a brief tornado cannot be
    completely ruled out. The severe threat should diminish with time as
    training storms and evening cooling stabilizes the low-level

    DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar data depicts numerous multicellular
    clusters, quasi-organized linear segments, and transient
    supercellular storms in progress across much of the northern
    Mid-Atlantic into the lower Hudson Valley and southern New England.
    Several of these storms have produced damaging gusts, with an
    occasional bout of severe hail and brief low-level rotation also
    noted. These storms have thrived in a moisture and CAPE-rich
    low-level troposphere, with steep low-level lapse rates fostering
    damaging gust potential given very warm temperatures. However,
    prolonged periods of training storms have resulted in the
    overturning of the troposhere, with cool, stable outflow covering
    much of the Mid Atlantic. While widespread thunderstorms will likely
    continue for at least a few more hours, the severe threat is
    expected to gradually wane with time as surface-based buoyant air
    becomes scant across the region, and as nocturnal cooling begins in
    a couple of hours.=20

    Still, at least a few more storms supporting damaging gusts are
    possible through at least 00Z, particularly in parts of northeast
    VA, eastern PA and perhaps southern and eastern NJ, where
    cooling/stabilization has been more gradual (surface temperatures
    well above 80F), and storm coverage more sparse. In addition, any
    storms that interact favorably with convective outflow boundaries
    may have a brief, locally higher potential to produce damaging gusts
    and perhaps a brief tornado/bout of severe hail. This is especially
    the case across southeast NY, where vertical shear is a bit

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!slUW2pXnXh5IukBCpktm04AFXLdzBh1eRANHmCGi7soLOIqXz9PEVY-k6Dk_43stFHi45f7T$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38107919 40757704 42537597 42827386 42697331 42177335
    41337380 39877422 39297472 38707581 38227709 38117797

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