• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1308

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 17 20:39:22 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 172039
    SPC MCD 172038=20 MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ00= 0-172215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1308
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0338 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382...

    Valid 172038Z - 172215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382

    SUMMARY...A threat for mainly damaging wind gusts will continue
    through the remainder of the afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of loosely organized storms have
    developed this afternoon across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into
    southern New England. One area of perhaps the best damaging wind
    potential should exist across parts of western MD and central PA in
    the short term. Here a broken line of storms will likely continue to
    move eastward over the next couple of hours. The airmass downstream
    of this activity should remain favorable for strong/gusty convective
    downdrafts to reach the surface and cause mainly tree damage.
    Farther south into northern VA and vicinity, the low/mid-level flow
    quickly weakens per recent VWPs from KLWX. Accordingly, storms have
    struggled to maintain intensity with southward extent across the
    Mid-Atlantic. Still, an isolated damaging wind threat should
    continue across this region in the short term with any storms that
    can persist given the steep low-level lapse rates and moderate
    boundary-layer instability present.

    Slightly stronger deep-layer shear is present along/near a warm
    front located across southern NY and into southern New England.
    Occasional supercells may occur in this regime, with around 30-35 kt
    of effective bulk shear per latest mesoanalysis estimates. Some
    marginal hail and perhaps a brief tornado will remain possible near
    the warm front in the short term, but damaging wind gusts should
    continue to be the main threat through the remainder of the
    afternoon across a majority of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382.

    ..Gleason.. 07/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uF7jrPYJdMw7FAqTsuLq0uKrSkhybUwAc28f1VwGkTmMl0FQj7EAZPFfwllek6Bv7kbG1CCg$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38217899 39497871 40087836 40767773 41127743 41867713
    42507635 42717485 42697333 42697224 42587166 42057144
    41357179 41287236 40507379 39357566 38447651 38177805

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