• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1307

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 17 19:03:22 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 171903
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171902=20
    NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-172030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1307
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0202 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northern VA...DC...central/eastern
    MD...eastern PA...DE...NJ...and southern NY

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382...

    Valid 171902Z - 172030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 382
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The best chance for scattered damaging wind gusts in the
    next couple of hours should focus across parts of northern Virginia
    into central/eastern Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania, Delaware, New
    Jersey, and far southern New York.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have started to form into small clusters along
    and ahead of a pre-frontal trough across the Mid-Atlantic. The
    airmass downstream of these storms is moderately to strongly
    unstable, with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg present. Steep low-level
    lapse rates owing to strong diurnal heating of a very well mixed
    boundary layer are promoting efficient downdraft accelerations. KEWR
    (Newark NJ) measured a peak severe wind gust to 50 kt when a storm
    moved through at 1849Z, while KOMH (Orange County Airport in
    northern VA) similarly recorded a wind gust to 46 kt at 1815Z.
    Modest but sufficient effective bulk shear around 20-30 kt will
    likely continue fostering modest storm organization, with multicell
    clusters the primary storm mode. Current expectations are for these
    clusters to pose a scattered damaging wind threat for the next
    couple of hours as they move eastward across northern VA, DC,
    central/eastern MD, eastern PA, DE, NJ, and far southern NY,
    including the NYC metro area.

    ..Gleason.. 07/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pC69kRS9qHLdrRUa4fGmBTttzhPa9RJokSukRCTI971hRwudKELr2NX7DnPc31iJ6LLF9-u4$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38167794 38717781 39317724 39647653 40637612 41107490
    41147392 40917359 39927403 39507426 39127481 38797570
    38307739 38167794=20



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