• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1306

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 17 18:43:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 171843
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171842=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-172115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1306
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0142 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

    Areas affected...Central/Western Oklahoma into the Oklahoma and
    Texas Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 171842Z - 172115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are starting to increase in coverage and
    intensity across northwestern Oklahoma. Although there is
    significant uncertainty with regard to thunderstorm evolution this
    afternoon, the lack of better shear will likely preclude the need
    for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms overnight and this morning over
    southern Kansas have resulted in merging outflow boundaries across
    northwestern Oklahoma. With strong insolation and low 70F
    dewpoints, surface-based storms have begun to initiate along the
    effective boundary in a moderately unstable environment (~2000 J/kg
    MLCAPE per mesoanalysis). The midlevel west-northwesterly flow (~25
    knots per the VNX VWP) is enhanced by a convectively-induced
    midlevel perturbation moving southeastward across the region. When
    coupled with 5-10 knot southerly low-level winds ahead of the
    boundary, 25-35 knots of effective bulk shear is expected to support
    some storm organization and associated severe weather threat (hail
    and wind for the strongest cores) through the afternoon/early
    evening across western/central Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle.
    Overall, the lack of stronger shear/flow is expected to limit the
    coverage of severe weather, but convective trends will continue to
    be monitored.

    ..Jirak/Dial.. 07/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tgrBYfQZY2Zx9T8NFwmgJOqnCW0WtApLckroy2pPmorhQ3zU6umP6DyisqlP8_WZuwCdQ88u$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...

    LAT...LON 36780227 36280105 35980021 35989949 36089876 36179848
    36249806 36529664 36229636 35799626 35209652 34799694
    34409768 34289859 34259974 34340054 34520119 35060192
    35790239 36010254 36270273 36780227=20



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