• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1305

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 17 17:16:22 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 171716
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171715=20
    VAZ000-NCZ000-171945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1305
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1215 PM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southern VA and western/central NC

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 171715Z - 171945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for occasional damaging wind gusts should
    continue as storms move eastward this afternoon. The overall severe
    threat will probably remain fairly isolated/marginal, and watch
    issuance appears unlikely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have recently formed along/east of the Blue
    Ridge Mountains in southern VA and western NC. Additional storms may
    develop this afternoon along a pre-frontal trough across
    south-central VA into central NC. Visible satellite imagery shows
    mostly clear skies ahead of this activity, and robust diurnal
    heating has already warmed surface temperatures into the upper 80s
    and lower 90s as of 17Z. MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg will be present
    across the warm sector, even with mid-level lapse rates remaining
    poor. Steepening low-level lapse rates should support some potential
    for strong/gusty downdraft winds with any loosely organized clusters
    that can form. However, deep-layer shear is expected to remain quite
    weak across this region (25 kt or less), with the stronger mid-level southwesterly flow displaced well to the north. This should keep
    overall storm organization modest at best, and the threat for
    damaging wind gusts fairly isolated. At this point, it appears that
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will probably not be needed due
    to the limited storm organization expected.

    ..Gleason/Dial.. 07/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t2vT4hIC1N0jRKyTHS-RIvcT9Mw9OGFKMzDmi5hmQzT9b1oo6zHaFJzAKDs7GEMDDK-o0OZH$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

    LAT...LON 35528102 35938140 36438120 37058005 37487884 37777832
    37737756 37027740 36167768 35497850 35367964 35528102=20



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