• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1303

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 17 12:27:51 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 171227
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171227=20
    ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-171430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1303
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0727 AM CDT Sat Jul 17 2021

    Areas affected...central Kansas into northwest Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 171227Z - 171430Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Occasional strong thunderstorm winds, briefly approaching
    60 mph at times, may occur this morning with thunderstorms across
    central Kansas into northeast Oklahoma. A watch should not be needed
    this morning.

    DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms continue across central
    Kansas into northwest Arkansas associated with persistent warm-air
    advection in the 925-850 millibar layer. Tall, skinny CAPE profiles
    yielding effective-layer CAPE around 1500 J/kg and precipitable
    water values between 1.5 and 2.0 inches may support an occasional
    water-loaded downdraft capable of producing thunderstorm winds
    around 60 mph this morning. However, modest low-level and mid-level
    lapse rates of 5.5-6.5 C/km and weak effective-layer shear
    (generally less than 20 knots) should limit a more widespread severe
    wind threat.=20

    Farther north, across north-central Kansas, thunderstorms have
    recently intensified along the leading edge of a remnant MCV from
    overnight convection. Here, effective-layer shear is a little
    better than farther south (generally around 25 knots). This may
    support a slightly more organized wind threat than farther south,
    but similar low-level and mid-level lapse rates as farther south and
    weaker instability should limit the overall severe potential.

    In both scenarios, a watch is not currently expected.

    ..Marsh/Thompson.. 07/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p2clIYSrmUx3zskRYKEyaeqix-O4VhpzBP1K5xbDBYkK8w91euSXyw0MuO4sg1BXFvRGD3Iq$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

    LAT...LON 38609970 39729868 40029820 39939763 39429765 38699703
    37929532 36919363 36299303 35819278 35479323 35659455
    36549694 37569886 37999960 38609970=20



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