• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1300

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 16 21:52:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 162152
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162151=20
    CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-162345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1300
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0451 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

    Areas affected...portions of central and eastern
    Pennsylvania...northern New Jersey...far southeast New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 162151Z - 162345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple damaging wind gusts may accompany the stronger
    storms through the remainder of the afternoon. The severe threat is
    expected to gradually wane by sunset.

    DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar data depicts multicellular clusters
    in progress across portions of central PA, with some recent linear
    organization noted. These storms are progressing into a well-mixed
    boundary layer, characterized by 7+ C/km sfc-3km lapse rates atop 90
    F surface temperatures, contributing to 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Given
    the well-mixed boundary layer, efficient downward momentum transport
    with some of the stronger storm cores may foster a couple damaging
    gusts, though the overall severe threat is expected to remain
    relatively sparse given weak vertical shear profiles. By sunset, the
    boundary layer will begin to cool/decouple, with the isolated
    damaging gust threat gradually diminishing.

    ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 07/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vCrN6WTfSjLc7cE2wjWPV4THVNoi6QumeWwRd9FDwXHwymt_vyRbjUya9oEnqNs-tejHk333$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

    LAT...LON 40267806 40727741 41217662 41507572 41777503 41867431
    41647378 41247359 40877365 40577416 40467469 40157538
    40067596 40017669 39997749 40267806=20



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