• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1298

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 16 17:11:16 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161711
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161710=20
    OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-162115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1298
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1210 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

    Areas affected...southern Indiana and Ohio...northern Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 161710Z - 162115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A gradual increase of storms is expected through the
    afternoon, and a few could produce locally strong wind gusts across
    southern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and northern Kentucky.

    DISCUSSION...A belt of 30-40 kt midlevel southwesterlies currently
    exists across the region, with an instability gradient situated
    across southern IL and IN and into central OH. Visible imagery shows
    good heating across much of the region, and southwesterly surface
    winds will maintain higher theta-e across the OH Valley this
    afternoon.

    Isolated storms are currently developing over southern IL ahead of
    an MCV, and over southeast IN where low-level warm/moist advection
    is maximized. Continued heating and sufficient surface convergence
    should support more storm development over the next several hours. Aforementioned midlevel wind speeds may allow for a few fast moving,
    forward propagating storms capable of strong outflow winds, mainly
    along the instability gradient. Poor lapse rates aloft as well as
    the weak shear should limit severe coverage and organization, with a
    watch unlikely as a result.

    ..Jewell/Dial.. 07/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!swuyYnDZ5LkhM0hECg7vCnKw3zEQWIn7pZlJE9t6vVL38S0smUKwvbioSA5GukHp8FVSvhkN$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

    LAT...LON 38358366 37658778 37888811 38518813 39368538 39958425
    40158325 40018266 39628254 39208273 38878291 38358366=20



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