• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1297

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 16 15:35:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161535
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161534=20
    MEZ000-161800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1297
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1034 AM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021

    Areas affected...Maine

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 161534Z - 161800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms may increase in intensity within the surface trough
    over the next several hours. Marginally severe hail or wind is most
    likely, but a brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out where surface
    winds remain backed.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows strong heating across southern
    NH and ME with a thicker band of cloud and PWAT ahead of the cold
    front. A few storms were already ongoing near the zone of
    differential heating.

    As the surface low continues to pull away from the region, low-level
    winds will continue to veer, in part due to boundary-layer mixing.
    While this will reduce low-level shear, hodographs may be
    sufficiently long to support a few strong to severe cells or small
    lines capable of hail or localized strong gusts.=20

    As of 1530Z, objective analysis indicates around 100 m2/s2 0-1km SRH
    over eastern ME where surface winds are more southerly than farther
    west. As ongoing storms over central ME continue east, some
    strengthening is anticipated due to heating and destabilization. Any
    tornado threat is highly conditional on low-level shear remaining
    strong enough through the afternoon.

    ..Jewell/Dial.. 07/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qV6OW3AAFu6rPm3xQAe0A7jIK18oQqiP1QJstCwgVD65M1J8m9dhKQNcX0Z_kIYORJoMQdiz$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

    LAT...LON 45656894 46006813 45926776 45626733 45316732 44986744
    44626764 44366796 44046850 43926913 43367038 43777080
    44217080 44867007 45656894=20



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