• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1296

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 15 21:02:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152102
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152101=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-152300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1296
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0401 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

    Areas affected...South-central KS...north-central OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 152101Z - 152300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Convection is expected to increase by early evening. A few
    organized storms are possible, posing a threat of damaging wind and
    perhaps a brief tornado.

    DISCUSSION...Clearing in the wake of an MCV moving across
    south-central KS has resulted in moderate destabilization, with
    MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and minimal MLCINH noted in areas where
    some heating has occurred, per recent mesoanalyses. Modest but
    veering flow aloft is supporting effective shear of 25-35 kt, with
    the higher shear values noted where surface winds remain relatively
    backed, as noted in recent VWP data from KICT.=20

    Guidance suggests storms will develop by late afternoon/early
    evening across south-central KS into northwest/north-central OK,
    which is supported by increasing cumulus noted in recent VIS
    imagery. Effective shear will support organized convection as storms
    mature, and a supercell or two cannot be ruled out if any storms can
    be sustained into the favorable wind profile that will reside to the
    east of the most likely initiation zone. Locally damaging wind will
    be possible with any stronger storm across this region, and any
    supercell may pose a conditional risk of a brief tornado.=20

    Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely, given uncertainties
    regarding storm coverage in the short term and evolution of the
    mesoscale details, but trends will continue to be monitored for the
    potential of isolated supercell development.

    ..Dean/Bunting.. 07/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uS3Qt33Saw_MJYxHFSKWvDPM8YOF9Vbf-U-rgykhVzopSwPGaZLUMgZGvnrXFv7bX-HnpAk2$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

    LAT...LON 37039679 36759710 36549868 36899898 37369888 37769841
    38049761 38019691 37709663 37289660 37039679=20



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