• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1295

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 15 20:09:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152009
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152009=20
    COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-152245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1295
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0309 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast WY...Southwest NE Panhandle...Eastern CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 152009Z - 152245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms are possible this afternoon and
    evening, with a threat of isolated severe hail and wind.

    DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently developed near Limon,
    Colorado, with other convection increasing to the northwest across
    the higher terrain of southeast WY. While storm coverage will likely
    remain isolated due to weak large-scale ascent, weak-to-moderate
    instability and low-level southeasterly flow veering to modest
    northwesterly flow aloft will support the potential for organized
    storms. A supercell or two may eventually develop and track
    southeastward, posing a localized risk of hail and severe gusts. The
    severe risk is expected to be diurnally driven and peak during the
    late afternoon/early evening before nocturnal stabilization reduces
    the threat with time tonight.

    ..Dean/Bunting.. 07/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!stszr7DcUKkoDMLFkJGibB_NJxzNYBwvKf3ShfNbzqPO0_BqgWqavY-MzWY71VPNSObAgE7F$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 38490267 38040395 38790430 39980476 40920520 41310548
    42150579 42420514 42110412 41910396 41060325 39990294
    38980271 38490267=20



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