• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1294

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 15 19:33:11 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151933
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151932=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-152130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1294
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0232 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast OK...Southeast KS...Southwest MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 151932Z - 152130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible later this afternoon,
    with a threat of locally damaging winds.

    DISCUSSION...At 1930Z, convection is gradually increasing near a
    weak surface boundary across southeast KS into southwest MO, in
    advance of an MCV moving across south-central KS. While widespread
    clouds are noted across much of the area, somewhat more substantial
    heating has occurred to the south/east of the boundary, where some
    clearing has occurred this afternoon. Where temperatures have risen
    into the mid/upper 80s F, MLCAPE has increased into the 1500-2500
    J/kg range, per recent mesoanalyses. A few strong storms may evolve
    along this instability axis this afternoon, as modestly enhanced
    midlevel flow associated with the MCV overspreads the region. A few
    briefly organized cells/clusters will be possible, with locally
    damaging winds possible where low-level lapse rates have steepened.=20

    Another round of potentially strong storms will be possible this
    evening across the same general region, as a low-level jet becomes
    focused into the area.

    ..Dean/Bunting.. 07/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p8LaBsxj5FRVta-yTDcze2hKj4GneAs9jlff03cj5I7VEQn9XGirYzlBRul5r-8_R7iCRCtz$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

    LAT...LON 37199398 36599546 36339608 36319665 36949660 37099646
    37459613 37789560 37919536 38639406 38759384 38929338
    38339269 37899261 37779288 37419346 37199398=20



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