• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1293

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 15 18:40:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151840
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151839=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-152045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1293
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0139 PM CDT Thu Jul 15 2021

    Areas affected...central Illinois into Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 151839Z - 152045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase in coverage, with localized
    wind damage possible. A watch could be needed if it becomes apparent
    severe will be more widespread than currently anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...A small cluster of storms is showing increasing trends
    as it crossed from northeast MO into western IL, while smaller
    showers are also forming over southern and eastern IL.=20

    Visible satellite shows strong heating from southeast MO across IL
    and into IN, with widespread high clouds across northern MO and IL.
    Objective analysis indicates up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in the
    well-heated areas, with the instability gradient aligned along the
    southern edge of the thicker high clouds. Mean winds through a deep
    layer are out of the west/southwest at around 30 kt, which will
    provide favorable storm-relative inflow to any developing clusters.
    The favorable time of day along with PWAT over 1.50" suggests a few
    downdrafts may be substantial. Thus, at least isolated damaging
    gusts appear likely as activity increases in intensity and coverage
    over the next several hours.

    ..Jewell/Bunting.. 07/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!twI7wlDz0jpW58pWOuTB-Rlory9qQg-ptrkGhY67fWWAWVdYdETJdzPB5fYMXHzuJyMNJ3I2$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 39689116 40149120 40519077 41308721 41198654 40818618
    40338604 39838627 39378793 39298894 39358993 39439078
    39689116=20



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