• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1291

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 15 04:17:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 150417
    SPC MCD 150417=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1291
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1117 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

    Areas affected...Extreme eastern IA...northern IL...extreme
    southeast WI

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...

    Valid 150417Z - 150515Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong/severe convection will continue to sag
    east-southeast across ww379. Locally damaging winds may become the
    primary concern. Some consideration is being given to a new watch
    immediately downstream across northern IL.

    DISCUSSION...LLJ continues to strengthen as it veers strongly
    southwest ahead of the primary convection. Deeper wind profiles
    suggest a more linear/bow-type storm mode should be the primary
    concern as SW-NE oriented corridor of convection shifts east at
    roughly 25kt. As surface temperatures cool into the mid 70s,
    forecast soundings suggest thunderstorms will become increasingly
    elevated, likely rooted near 925mb. Given the increasingly linear
    storm mode, and decoupling of the boundary layer, the main concern
    should be wind as the squall line advances across northern IL

    ..Darrow.. 07/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sewQg0vMoZhv8vg6V57LeyTudEMXzuU9z6qGPPNPPCCZWfhtBcuMM2h6yD67dg6KO-T-AXAr$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41469128 42738935 42648819 41658890 41029066 41469128=20

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