Mesoscale Discussion 1291
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021
Areas affected...Extreme eastern IA...northern IL...extreme
Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...
Valid 150417Z - 150515Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.
SUMMARY...Strong/severe convection will continue to sag
east-southeast across ww379. Locally damaging winds may become the
primary concern. Some consideration is being given to a new watch
immediately downstream across northern IL.
DISCUSSION...LLJ continues to strengthen as it veers strongly
southwest ahead of the primary convection. Deeper wind profiles
suggest a more linear/bow-type storm mode should be the primary
concern as SW-NE oriented corridor of convection shifts east at
roughly 25kt. As surface temperatures cool into the mid 70s,
forecast soundings suggest thunderstorms will become increasingly
elevated, likely rooted near 925mb. Given the increasingly linear
storm mode, and decoupling of the boundary layer, the main concern
should be wind as the squall line advances across northern IL
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