• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1290

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 15 02:16:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 150215
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150215=20
    WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-150345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1290
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0915 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern IA...Southern WI...Northwest IL

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...

    Valid 150215Z - 150345Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat will gradually shift southeast across ww379
    this evening.

    DISCUSSION...LLJ has strengthened considerably across eastern IA
    into southeastern WI this evening, where 40kt is currently observed
    at 1km AGL. This has aided the northward advancement of the surface
    front which is now draped from Lake County IL-north of RYV-north of
    MSN. Overall, convective trends have become more multi-clustered
    with an expanding corridor of thunderstorms extending
    southwest-northeast along the LLJ axis. A few supercells remain
    along the southwestern flank of this activity, especially just north
    of Cedar Rapids. This southern activity remains concentrated in the
    greater buoyancy air mass, and latest diagnostic data suggests the
    immediate downstream environment remains favorable for surface-based
    supercells (temperatures holding near 80F at DVN). Latest trends
    suggest the SW/NE-oriented band of storms will gradually sag
    southeast across the remainder of ww379 later this evening,
    eventually spreading across the remainder of northern IL later
    tonight as LLJ translates downstream. Greatest short-term severe
    threat appears to be in the CID-DBQ corridor where surface-based
    supercells continue.

    ..Darrow.. 07/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ub5UDlDDCZMGX9SuxY4S-rsA0RC3ZpiFPF13sr7tPC29KFUIfIJH4grX85pZH95Q1y1EMGYx$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

    LAT...LON 41749171 43469172 43628902 41908901 41749171=20



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