• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1287

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 14 22:43:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142242
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 142242=20
    WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-142345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1287
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0542 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern IA...Northern IL...Southern WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 142242Z - 142345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe threat is increasing across eastern IA/northwestern
    IL into southern WI. New ww will likely be warranted soon.

    DISCUSSION...Early-day MCS has progressed across the upper Midwest
    with the leading edge now spreading across LE. Considerable
    boundary-layer disruption has been noted across WI/northern IL into
    extreme northeast IA. However, over the last few hours, partial
    clearing across eastern IA has allowed surface temperatures to warm
    into the lower 80s from east of ALO-MXO-CWI-north of C75 in
    Illinois. Further recover appears likely to near the WI/IL border
    over the next few hours. While updrafts may struggle to be truly
    surface-based where temperatures struggle to rise above 75F, there
    is increasing concern/confidence that ongoing supercells over
    central IA will progress east of ww378 into a region that is
    recovering in the wake of earlier convection. Ample shear/buoyancy
    suggest supercells will continue, along with a tornado threat.
    Additionally, LLJ is forecast to increase across southern/central WI
    this evening and this should encourage renewed convective
    development. New ww will likely be issued soon.

    ..Darrow/Guyer.. 07/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sKCUkb8uE2DOgznjroOPeGMV2dSrz-lIy48uEMlMFiXJra49M8yPMBM5hsFduEColYSVKiqS$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

    LAT...LON 43269164 43638913 42848852 42168919 41829151 43269164=20



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