• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1285

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 14 20:36:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142036
    SPC MCD 142035=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1285
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0335 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

    Areas affected...East-Central Nevada into Southwest Utah

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 142035Z - 142200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Widely scattered storms may pose a threat for gusty
    outflow winds and severe hail. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating over the region has led to the
    development of widely scattered convection over high
    terrain/terrain-favored areas. This convective development is
    occurring within an environment characterized by weak instability
    (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) and weak deep-layer shear. That said, strong
    low- and mid-level lapse rates favoring inverted-v forecast
    soundings should support a marginal severe threat, with gusty
    outflow winds and severe hail possible in the strongest cells this
    afternoon. With time, cold pools may merge and lead to a small
    cluster or two of storms that could prolong the severe wind
    potential into the evening hours. The overall threat is expected to
    remain mostly isolated though, thus a watch is not anticipated at
    this time.

    ..Karstens/Bunting.. 07/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o7JvrcBa_PeRSRwzZPGTzi_HXM_u3USPrJOP9TUNiEeNAA4zEGjsejsMyxpZMq_ja928IltB$=
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    LAT...LON 38191554 38011625 38861676 39501635 40321516 40611427
    40031325 38571184 37761124 37231170 37371298 38171447
    38291519 38191554=20

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