• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1284

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 14 19:25:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 141925
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141924=20
    MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-142130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1284
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0224 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

    Areas affected...northern Virginia into Maryland

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 141924Z - 142130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A cluster of storms may produce strong wind gusts capable
    of localized damage over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Steep low-level lapse rates have developed near a weak
    surface trough, resulting in deep mixed layers per modified forecast
    soundings. A small cluster of storms has already formed over
    northern VA, consistent with earlier CAM depictions, and these cells
    are likely to propagate east/southeast over the next few hours.
    Deep-layer shear is weak, but perhaps sufficient to sustain and
    advect these storms eastward given the deep mixed layers and
    sufficient instability. As such, localized damaging gusts cannot be
    ruled out. Storms are expected to remain tied to the diurnal cycle,
    and weaken by evening.

    ..Jewell/Bunting.. 07/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q_udnONh3J7E0cAK_JqKe9FfZQ-Ef6Sy9vosoeSfDN4F3NlZ6IAlYmmiIr-scdJnmYjxe4zg$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

    LAT...LON 37937729 37877831 38107861 38397842 39037828 39317779
    39367706 39187662 38757648 38357649 38227660 37937729=20



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