• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1283

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 14 19:12:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 141912
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141911=20
    MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-142145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1283
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0211 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

    Areas affected...parts of New England

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 141911Z - 142145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An uptick in storm coverage is expected over the next 1-2
    hours, with isolated damaging gusts or small hail possible. A watch
    is not anticipated due to expected isolated/marginal nature of
    severe.

    DISCUSSION...A low-level theta-e/instability axis currently exists
    across far eastern NY and into southern New England, with impinging west/southwest 850 mb winds aiding warm advection across VT and NH.
    Winds in the low to mid levels are not particularly strong, but
    sufficient to support a few longer-lived cells. Heating/favorable
    time of day may further bolster updrafts, and marginal hail will be
    possible with the strongest cells. Ample PWAT over 1.50" may further
    support strong outflow winds. Effective SRH is currently in the
    50-100 m2/s2 range, which is a bit low to support any supercell
    threat. While isolated/marginal severe will be possible, coverage is
    not expected to necessitate a watch.

    ..Jewell/Bunting.. 07/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rgePgAWmRzZ4si_Ae7oM8MVluRMUY-5jNZsZbn704HrRdsq4xOc-wiIhphaF1HyvZLQnMQ9f$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

    LAT...LON 42777366 43247275 43817225 44347196 45037181 45337134
    45347101 45097058 44257034 43437028 42877047 42727117
    42667223 42697336 42777366=20



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