• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1281

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 14 18:41:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 141840
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141840=20
    IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-142045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1281
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0140 PM CDT Wed Jul 14 2021

    Areas affected...much of Iowa...far eastern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 141840Z - 142045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop by 21Z from the
    Nebraska/Iowa border across northwest Iowa, with supercell potential
    spreading east/northeast across Iowa and perhaps extreme southern
    Minnesota this evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, along with
    damaging gusts and hail.

    DISCUSSION...A diffuse warm front currently extends from northeast
    NE across central IA, with outflow-cooled air from northeast IA into
    southwest WI. The outflow farther west across north-central IA has
    modified somewhat with dewpoints holding near 70 F along with backed
    surface winds.=20

    Southerly winds are currently gusting to over 20 kt across the MO
    Valley, with area of heating across western IA and NE. Continued destabilization is therefore likely across these areas, and this is
    also where surface convergence is focused along the low pressure
    trough. Farther to the northwest, a secondary from extends from
    southwest MN into northern NE, and low-topped convection has been
    noted over far northwest IA.

    Lift will continue to consolidate over western IA over the next few
    hours, where instability and shear parameters will also maximize. A
    downstream zone of supercell potential will exist in association
    with the warm front/outflow with enhanced low-level shear and low
    LCLs. A few tornadoes will be possible, as well as large hail.
    Damaging wind potential may increase should more of a linear storm
    mode materialize a few hours after initiation.

    ..Jewell/Bunting.. 07/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tRoeR6LCMKuFOum6BXeX7IJ0mYW-xDQVR81g6IWpZ1EYgJee-yoG7luKkwq3f6PIepFnVd8A$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 41329506 41289585 41399618 41609637 41999651 42339640
    42929574 43439459 43669304 43479232 43279197 43079187
    42779175 42179196 41949301 41329506=20



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