• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1278

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 14 04:31:03 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 140430
    SPC MCD 140430=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1278
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1130 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

    Areas affected...Far easter WY...Southwest SD...Western NE Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 376...

    Valid 140430Z - 140600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 376

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts are possible across far southeast
    WY, southwest SD, and the western NE Panhandle for the next hour or
    so. Isolated hail could also occur. The need for a downstream watch
    is uncertain, but trends are being monitored.

    DISCUSSION...Two distinct thunderstorms clusters continue to evolve eastward/southeastward into southwest SD and the western NE
    Panhandle. Northernmost cluster moving into southwest SD has
    recently shown some new updrafts on its southwestern flank over
    Weston County WY as well as a modest increase in the overall forward progression of the cluster. Storm motion of the cluster also appears
    to have taken a more southerly component. These trends will likely
    continue given the more buoyant air mass in place south of the
    evolving line. Strong to severe gusts have been measured within this
    line and the expectation is for the damaging wind threat to persist
    as it move southward/southeastward.

    Southernmost cluster has recently shown a marked increase in updraft
    strength, particularly across its central and southern region (over
    Sioux and Scotts Bluff Counties in NE and Goshen County in WY). This
    is likely a result of increasing buoyancy with southeastward extent.
    Forward speed within the line has not noticeably increased yet.
    However, given the noted updraft strengthening, an increase in
    forward progression is likely. Low-level stability may temper the
    wind gusts realized at the surface, but some strong to severe gusts
    are still possible.

    Given the nocturnal stabilization, the need for a downstream watch
    is currently uncertain. However, convective trends will be monitored
    closely for signs that coverage of severe gusts will be high enough
    to merit watch issuance.

    ..Mosier.. 07/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ulgX_SqvogRQNcbpCIBSjImJ2OGVXvYZRhlffSEXcLQTwcWtbsPhtvV_hQVeHR_QpWQCwDrZ$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 44050436 44650351 44630196 43840154 41780146 41160286
    41410460 44050436=20

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