• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1274

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 13 22:56:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132256
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132256=20
    NMZ000-AZZ000-140100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1274
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0556 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

    Areas affected...Central/East-Central/Southeast AZ...Far
    West-Central NM

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 132256Z - 140100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging downbursts are possible over
    the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop within the
    warm and modestly moist air mass across the Southwest. Storm motion
    has been predominantly westward, with the exception of the storms
    near PRC, which moved eastward. This varying motion is evidence of
    the weakly sheared environment void of strong steering flow.
    Additionally, this weak vertical shear is also resulting in short
    updraft duration. New development will likely continue to occur on
    storm outflow, but the overall severe threat appears limited due to
    the weak vertical shear and relatively modest instability. Even so,
    a few strong updrafts are still possible, mostly as a result of
    storm mergers, with the potential to produce isolated hail and
    damaging downburst winds.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rxBWFyy4EMrKidEPw_Xft55B8xrooOfWPp2tyhY3HQPMQoZo4pe12HI1XeGmaWWY7635Tttp$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABQ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

    LAT...LON 35191224 35431180 35271098 34460875 33430861 33160923
    32840968 32150994 31411048 31591155 32841112 33581144
    34421250 35191224=20



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