Mesoscale Discussion 1274
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021
Areas affected...Central/East-Central/Southeast AZ...Far
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 132256Z - 140100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging downbursts are possible over
the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop within the
warm and modestly moist air mass across the Southwest. Storm motion
has been predominantly westward, with the exception of the storms
near PRC, which moved eastward. This varying motion is evidence of
the weakly sheared environment void of strong steering flow.
Additionally, this weak vertical shear is also resulting in short
updraft duration. New development will likely continue to occur on
storm outflow, but the overall severe threat appears limited due to
the weak vertical shear and relatively modest instability. Even so,
a few strong updrafts are still possible, mostly as a result of
storm mergers, with the potential to produce isolated hail and
damaging downburst winds.
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