• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1273

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 13 22:44:56 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132244
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132244=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-140015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1273
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0544 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

    Areas affected...Central Pennsylvania and central New York

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375...

    Valid 132244Z - 140015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A broken line of storms in western New York into central
    Pennsylvania will continue east into a better thermodynamic
    environment. Damaging winds will continue to be the main thereat
    into the early evening. A localized tornado threat exists from
    central Pennsylvania into south-central New York.

    DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms continues eastward from western
    New York into central Pennsylvania. The most organized portion of
    the line is now just west of State College, PA, and will move into a
    better thermodynamic environment in the next 1-2 hours. Damaging
    winds will continue to be the primary hazard with this line into the
    early evening. Discrete storms modes may produce marginally severe
    hail, but this will generally be limited by modest mid-level lapse
    rates.

    While the overall tornado threat is low, a modest increase in 850 mb
    winds late this afternoon and early evening will enlarge low-level
    hodographs in central Pennsylvania and central New York. With the
    approach of the mid-level shortwave trough, surface winds east of
    State College, PA, to west of Binghamton, NY, have backed over the
    last hour. So long as a few discrete elements remain in the broken
    line, the tornado threat -- though low -- would be maximized in this
    region through 8-9 PM EDT.

    ..Wendt.. 07/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!quf1X2utBwL8mgkcGG-rd1oudgUFX51yih67cwZS2cuJHamwz0UIzUB4ZW8WIJNihJd_-mPA$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...

    LAT...LON 40417914 42817896 43827722 44057593 43737530 42977514
    41097598 40047732 40417914=20



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