Mesoscale Discussion 1271
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021
Areas affected...Portions of the Northeast
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375...
Valid 132007Z - 132200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 375, with damaging
winds the main threat.
DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar depicts a few isolated storms
over portions of southern New York and vicinity. Updrafts have
largely been transient thus far, likely due to modest mid-level
lapse rates amid abundant shear. However, recent scans/imagery
suggest the intensity of these storms may be increasing somewhat as
low-level lapse rates over the region remain supportive for
convective development amid a weak cap.
Farther west, a cluster of severe storms has emerged across portions
of western Pennsylvania, with several damaging wind reports. This
band of convection appears to be associated with a mid-level
short-wave evident at 700 mb. Short-term convection-allowing models
suggest these storms should continue moving northeast into western
portions of the watch area across northwest Pennsylvania and
southwestern New York. Additional storm development is possible
along the southern flank of the line as the mid-level wave and
associated ascent progresses through the region for the remainder of
the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds remain the primary
hazard, but severe hail and a tornado or two are possible,
particularly with any discrete/supercell modes that may emerge.
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