• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1271

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 13 20:07:55 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132007
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132007=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-132200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1271
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0307 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the Northeast

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375...

    Valid 132007Z - 132200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 375
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 375, with damaging
    winds the main threat.

    DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar depicts a few isolated storms
    over portions of southern New York and vicinity. Updrafts have
    largely been transient thus far, likely due to modest mid-level
    lapse rates amid abundant shear. However, recent scans/imagery
    suggest the intensity of these storms may be increasing somewhat as
    low-level lapse rates over the region remain supportive for
    convective development amid a weak cap.

    Farther west, a cluster of severe storms has emerged across portions
    of western Pennsylvania, with several damaging wind reports. This
    band of convection appears to be associated with a mid-level
    short-wave evident at 700 mb. Short-term convection-allowing models
    suggest these storms should continue moving northeast into western
    portions of the watch area across northwest Pennsylvania and
    southwestern New York. Additional storm development is possible
    along the southern flank of the line as the mid-level wave and
    associated ascent progresses through the region for the remainder of
    the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds remain the primary
    hazard, but severe hail and a tornado or two are possible,
    particularly with any discrete/supercell modes that may emerge.

    ..Karstens.. 07/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rbvJL3RxJNO8vu9x-qn-zb8gojVuEo3GdbUEFyw3wDBgAA1fHB2UJlazYBVl76eOp8qALm44$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
    CLE...

    LAT...LON 43367468 41887520 39987740 38917963 39288052 40248038
    41408100 42338091 43107943 43457919 43637868 44397586
    44067485 43367468=20



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