• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1270

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 13 19:38:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 131938
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131938=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-132145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1270
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0238 PM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast WY...Northeast CO...Southern NE
    Panhandle...Far Southwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 131938Z - 132145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon,
    with a threat of isolated hail and damaging wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...At 1930Z, scattered thunderstorms are moving eastward
    off of the higher terrain of far southeast WY/north-central CO.
    Downstream, strong heating is occurring across the lower elevations,
    though some MLCIN remains per recent mesoanalyses. As heating and destabilization continue this afternoon, ongoing convection may
    intensify into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle, or else redevelop
    later this afternoon as MLCIN continues to erode. MLCAPE increasing
    into the 1000-1500 J/kg range combined with effective shear of 30-40
    kt will support the potential for a loosely organized cluster or
    perhaps a supercell or two, with an attendant risk of large hail and
    locally severe wind gusts. At this time, coverage of the severe
    threat is expected to remain too isolated for watch issuance.

    ..Dean/Dial.. 07/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pw8SotIEq5icOvs8tj1YJBjkRRsuVWohSIm7v-edwa5CPVvn8A_Nb_fDZSgGip5ioIqILy8C$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41560592 41870479 41780377 41560234 41280180 40430148
    40040168 39330289 39910472 40430534 40830575 41560592=20



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