• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1269

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jul 13 16:48:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 131648
    SPC MCD 131648=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1269
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1148 AM CDT Tue Jul 13 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the Northeast

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 131648Z - 131815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms developing will pose a risk for damaging
    winds and severe hail this afternoon/evening. A severe thunderstorm
    watch will likely be issued in the next hour.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows morning clearing has given way
    to widespread cumulus development across the region. Surface
    temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 80s F amid rich
    low-level moisture characterized by dew point temperatures in the
    low to mid 70s F. This has led to rapid destabilization, with MLCAPE
    values of 1500 J/kg being analyzed across the region, and
    approaching 2000-2500 J/kg across portions of south-central
    Pennsylvania. Isolated storms are already beginning to develop, with
    a severe/maturing convective cell noted in central New York.=20

    This trend is expected to continue, with scattered storms expected
    across the region by early to mid afternoon. With effective bulk
    shear of 35-40 kt, storms should organize into a mixture of
    multicells and supercells, posing a risk for mainly damaging winds
    and some severe hail, and a tornado or two is possible. Given these
    trends, a severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for the
    region in the next hour or so.

    ..Karstens/Dial.. 07/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!urJZOKFgO7BED5T7_8SHdAOp0xCBlKGiZWW6znPSw9usad5XHTohHEz1k8kkLUywBJe5jHoR$=
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    LAT...LON 40077851 40317946 42157955 43467877 43467709 44027622
    44237541 43817479 41887524 40777511 40097610 39967680

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