• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1267

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 12 23:21:17 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 122321
    SPC MCD 122320=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1267
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0620 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

    Areas affected...East-Central/Southeast AZ...Far West-Central NM

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 122320Z - 130115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts are possible across east-central into
    southeast AZ over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar and visible satellite imagery
    shows increasingly clustered thunderstorms in and around the White
    Mountains in east-central AZ/west-central NM. Additionally, the
    storm cluster moving southwestward out of west-central NM has shown
    more forward progression, suggesting a more cold pool dominated
    storm structure. Combination of the increasing storm coverage and
    the approaching cold pool may result in the evolution of a bigger,
    modestly more organized convective line within the next hour or so.
    Updrafts have generally be transient thus far, likely a result of
    weak vertical shear and only modest instability, but new storm
    development along the potential cold pool is still possible given
    the weak convective inhibition in place. Downdrafts associated with
    new development could then reinforce the cold pool, leading to the
    potential for a few stronger gusts.=20

    Overall convective evolution and the resultant development of a
    strong cold pool is still uncertain, leading to lower watch
    probability at this time. Even so, convective trends will be
    monitored closely for signs that the threat is becoming high enough
    to merit watch issuance.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u797-ctynJAsZiKmhHtvn_3AI0N8i9hGAQyHsM8-OAef84bJ0kM1CjrEghcV0EwPakDGSq_z$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34391188 34841110 34240944 33260861 32590891 32420974
    32471092 33041154 33731181 34391188=20

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