• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1266

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 12 18:13:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121813
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121813=20
    INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-121945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1266
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0113 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

    Areas affected...Western Kentucky...Southeastern Illinois...and Central/Southern Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 121813Z - 121945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts may occur with the strongest storms.
    Watch issuance is not anticipated at this time.

    DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have warmed into the low 80s F
    amid a weak cap within a region of mid-level clearing evident in
    visible satellite imagery likely in association with a mid-level
    short-wave trough. With surface dew point temperatures in the low
    70s F, the atmosphere has destabilized sufficiently (MLCAPE near
    1000 J/kg) to promote widespread convective development and
    scattered thunderstorms. This trend is expected to continue through
    mid afternoon as further surface heating/isolation occurs, leading
    to at least marginally supportive low-level lapse rates. Weak
    deep-layer shear across the region should limit storm organization,
    however, a few damaging wind gusts may occur with the strongest
    storms. Given the the expectation for a somewhat isolated and
    transient nature of the threat, watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Karstens/Dial.. 07/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rr21lTd9xx8dNFUKvCm74xiilxNOWixkyh2Gb9Ghw5_tVi-5HYvW-O70j4DmyZYYfzFO4y6a$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 37028645 36578885 37918948 39458922 40678858 41198664
    40508497 38498528 37028645=20



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