Mesoscale Discussion 1266
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021
Areas affected...Western Kentucky...Southeastern Illinois...and Central/Southern Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 121813Z - 121945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts may occur with the strongest storms.
Watch issuance is not anticipated at this time.
DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have warmed into the low 80s F
amid a weak cap within a region of mid-level clearing evident in
visible satellite imagery likely in association with a mid-level
short-wave trough. With surface dew point temperatures in the low
70s F, the atmosphere has destabilized sufficiently (MLCAPE near
1000 J/kg) to promote widespread convective development and
scattered thunderstorms. This trend is expected to continue through
mid afternoon as further surface heating/isolation occurs, leading
to at least marginally supportive low-level lapse rates. Weak
deep-layer shear across the region should limit storm organization,
however, a few damaging wind gusts may occur with the strongest
storms. Given the the expectation for a somewhat isolated and
transient nature of the threat, watch issuance is not expected.
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