• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1265

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 12 17:33:22 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121733
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121732=20 NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-121900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1265
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the Northeast

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 121732Z - 121900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A few multicell clusters of storms should emerge by mid to
    late afternoon, posing a threat for damaging winds. Trends will
    continue to be monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows morning clearing over the
    region has allowed surface temperatures to warm into the mid to
    upper 80s F amid dew point temperatures in the low 70s F. This has
    led to somewhat rapid destabilization, with moderate instability
    (MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg) being analyzed on surface mesoanalysis.
    Scattered convection is already developing across portions of
    southern Pennsylvania, western Maryland, and northern Virginia, as
    convective temperatures are being eclipsed amid a weak cap. Despite
    these thermodynamic indices, mid-level lapse rates and deep-layer
    shear remains rather weak (20-25 kt effective bulk shear). Thus,
    storms may struggle to organize in the short-term.

    Additional storms should develop across the region as
    isolation/destabilization continues. This should lead to the
    development of a few multicell clusters of storms this afternoon.
    Should this occur, strong low-level lapse rates should support a
    damaging wind potential. Thus, convective trends will continue to be
    monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.

    ..Karstens/Dial.. 07/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oMmBhsWeFam8K4Iolt-ulEhdwxhgqii1N0L5CjQ0rMOrNQ_h1SXS_5dMDgJhdzMbc0dpU28v$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38357674 38277825 38917898 40467848 41157717 41387507
    40907296 39787391 38697498 38357674=20



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