• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1264

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 12 15:52:15 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121552
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121551=20
    FLZ000-121745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1264
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1051 AM CDT Mon Jul 12 2021

    Areas affected...portions of the FL Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 121551Z - 121745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic strong, locally damaging wind gusts and hail will
    be possible with more intense thunderstorms this afternoon across
    parts of the Florida Peninsula.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing across southern FL, moving
    toward the central peninsula, in the vicinity of an outflow boundary
    from overnight/early morning convection. Additional convection is
    also beginning to develop over eastern portions of the peninsula in
    developing sea breeze and deep southeasterly flow. Moderate to
    strong instability is already in place with dewpoints well into the
    70s F amid strong surface heating and modest midlevel cooling.
    Little to no inhibition remains over the region, and convection
    should continue to increase in coverage over the next couple of
    hours as storms track toward the northwest.=20

    Deep layer flow will generally remain weak over the region and this
    will inhibit storm organization somewhat. Nevertheless, steep
    midlevel lapse rates and strong instability should compensate and
    allow for at least briefly intense cells within thunderstorm
    clusters. High PW values also will help contribute to damaging wind
    potential via wet microburst processes. Some hail also could briefly
    accompany any more intense cells, but longevity of intense updrafts
    should remain limited given weak vertical shear. Trends will be
    monitored for possible watch issuance this afternoon.

    ..Leitman/Dial.. 07/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s5xeZ6KeGpRx0M1hOUUrYT-85YsMMr9ks7_V7ZgqOomIEfGpPksWCQgZVEJBea6LD0Gs54m_$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29628308 29828274 29798232 29608200 29198155 28618109
    28288095 27158086 26668081 26608082 26538103 26448175
    26648220 26998255 27768291 28538290 29198318 29558314
    29628308=20



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