• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1263

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 12 00:59:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 120059
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120058=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-120200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1263
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0758 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania...far northern Maryland

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372...

    Valid 120058Z - 120200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for damaging winds will continue for another 1-2
    hours. With time, though, the threat is expected to become more
    marginal and isolated. No downstream watch is planned this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms producing occasional wind
    damage in central Pennsylvania will continue eastward this evening.
    As temperatures cool ahead of the line and the influence of the MCV
    to the north lessens, storms are likely to undergo a weakening trend
    over the next couple of hours. In the short term, a small bookend
    vortex near Columbia County, PA, will pose the greatest wind gusts
    threat. This feature is near instability gradient and will be moving
    into cooler, more stable air within the next 1-2 hours. A remaining
    pocket of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE in east-central Pennsylvania into
    far northern Maryland may promote a few damaging gusts through 10-11
    PM EDT. The southward extent of the threat is most is question as
    low/mid-level forcing is weaker. Given the small spatial and
    temporal extent of an increasingly marginal severe threat, no
    downstream watch is planned this evening.

    ..Wendt.. 07/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oiuK6ETBK-kAH7ISwihAa44Q9WTkM62MOyaH3c4KJCuyRKDk8b4peZwBEP9rvxCftPij37wo$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

    LAT...LON 41077696 41127601 40947560 40707533 40187558 39787597
    39557643 39517701 39507760 39547820 39667825 39907795
    41077696=20



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