• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1262

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 11 23:51:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112351
    SPC MCD 112351=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1262
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0651 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

    Areas affected...Southwest/Central/East-Central TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 112351Z - 120115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely persist in the vicinity of a
    stationary front extending across much of central TX. A few strong
    to severe storms are possible, but minimal anticipated severe
    coverage merits low watch probability.

    DISCUSSION...A weak stationary boundary arcs from about 30 miles
    south of BGS to about 20 miles south of ACT and then back
    northeastward towards GGG. Thunderstorms started developing along
    the western portion of this boundary about 2 hours ago and have
    gradually spread farther eastward with time. The air mass in the
    vicinity of this boundary is moderately to strongly unstable, but
    weakly sheared. This area is also displaced southward/westward of
    the better forcing for ascent. These factors have led to somewhat
    shorter duration updraft cores that struggle to maintain strength
    away from the boundary. Even so, low-level convergence along the
    boundary amid the very moist air mass will likely result in
    continued storm development. Cell mergers may result in an updraft
    or two strong enough to produce hail and/or damaging wind gusts.=20

    There is some potential for cold pool amalgamation, which could then
    result in a forward-propagating convective line and a more coherent,
    spatially extensive severe threat. However, low potential for this
    scenario merits low watch probabilities at this time. Nevertheless,
    convective trends will be monitored closely.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pGISNnQnoU1CNC5tZUGnyXcFV7-mpsXlGOztZ0jk4tuXJ_OnlQmJiQx2NX2UnwQIxAPbz-z6$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 32010125 31659836 32599524 32529436 31719458 30839705
    30820029 31320141 32010125=20

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