• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1260

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 11 22:59:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112259
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112259=20
    AZZ000-120100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1260
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0559 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

    Areas affected...Northwest/Central AZ

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 112259Z - 120100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to severe storms are possible from northwest
    into central AZ over the next few hours. Limited severe coverage is
    expected to preclude the need for a watch.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop along the higher
    terrain stretching from northwest AZ eastward/southeastward into
    central AZ. The boundary layer is deeply mixed and modest mid-level
    moisture coupled with this deep mixing is fostering marginal
    buoyancy. Thus far, individual updrafts have been relatively
    short-lived, likely as a result of dry air entrainment and lack of
    stronger vertical shear for updraft organization. Cell merger over
    central Yavapai County has resulted in a robust updraft, but most of
    the ongoing storms only show modest cores.=20

    Strong to severe storms may occasionally occur for the next few
    hours, predominantly as a result of cell mergers, but the overall
    air mass appears less conducive for developing into the Lower
    Deserts than yesterday. As such, the forecast of limited severe
    coverage is expected to preclude the need for a watch.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 07/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!un233dUifFSopXshWEFK4FFhRuaAbyucwoRe_KTyyL7OxKDBXbBwc81iazmsGHQSRL9FR9Zt$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

    LAT...LON 36141374 36301309 35261205 34090990 33451027 33631101
    34531376 36141374=20



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