• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1259

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 11 21:41:43 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112141
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112141=20
    PAZ000-MDZ000-112315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1259
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0441 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

    Areas affected...Central Pennsylvania

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372...

    Valid 112141Z - 112315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds remain the primary threat in central
    Pennsylvania. A conditional tornado threat also exists with storms
    that favorably interact with the warm front.

    DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms within the broken line along the
    western edge of the Allegheny Mountains have exhibited some
    supercell structure. A few isolated cells have also developed within
    the warm sector in central Pennsylvania. While the primary threat
    with these storms will likely remain damaging wind gusts, there
    remains a conditional threat for a tornado with storms that interact
    with the warm front. The KCCX VWP shows over 200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH.
    The greatest tornado potential would exist with the discrete storms
    prior to them crossing the cold front or being overtaken by the
    broken line to the west. With water vapor imagery showing shortwave
    ridging in the area, there is uncertainty as to how much the
    discrete, warm sector storms will become. If they do mature, the
    process will be relatively slow given poor lapse rates aloft.

    ..Wendt.. 07/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ue9vTOO2GuK27Z00DxUiaaQbfmHGidFCSmKct309iW8LXHjhYCh3LsRtsug0PgKrKNKJODJE$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

    LAT...LON 39837963 40547931 41217857 41527757 41567650 41417640
    40657677 40107758 39687894 39837963=20



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