Mesoscale Discussion 1259
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021
Areas affected...Central Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372...
Valid 112141Z - 112315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 372
SUMMARY...Damaging winds remain the primary threat in central
Pennsylvania. A conditional tornado threat also exists with storms
that favorably interact with the warm front.
DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms within the broken line along the
western edge of the Allegheny Mountains have exhibited some
supercell structure. A few isolated cells have also developed within
the warm sector in central Pennsylvania. While the primary threat
with these storms will likely remain damaging wind gusts, there
remains a conditional threat for a tornado with storms that interact
with the warm front. The KCCX VWP shows over 200 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH.
The greatest tornado potential would exist with the discrete storms
prior to them crossing the cold front or being overtaken by the
broken line to the west. With water vapor imagery showing shortwave
ridging in the area, there is uncertainty as to how much the
discrete, warm sector storms will become. If they do mature, the
process will be relatively slow given poor lapse rates aloft.
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