• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1258

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 11 20:53:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112053
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112053=20
    MTZ000-112300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1258
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0353 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

    Areas affected...Far Northern Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 112053Z - 112300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of severe storms are likely to move across far
    northern Montana, posing a threat of severe hail and wind. Given
    the limited spatiotemporal threat, a watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Rapid thunderstorm development has occurred over the
    high terrain of the northern Rockies near the Canadian border ahead
    of a potent shortwave trough. Despite the limited moisture and
    instability, strong forcing for ascent and sufficient deep-layer
    shear will continue to support a supercell or two across far
    northern Montana through the afternoon and evening hours. Hail will
    probably be the primary threat initially, but a severe wind threat
    may evolve with time given the deep, well-mixed boundary layer
    across the area.

    ..Jirak/Guyer.. 07/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!srbN_RDQgew_oDkfTWA3ngr4Jmj8uWA8QBWBP3Kol528GSf5nG5coPqFC4c5VCZWWi4zjW4H$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TFX...

    LAT...LON 49001328 48561330 48391114 48400891 48420855 49000864
    48980944 48991161 49001328=20



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