• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1257

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 11 19:34:39 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111934
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111933=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-112100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1257
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0233 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central/southeast NM...West TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 371...

    Valid 111933Z - 112100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 371
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for large hail and damaging winds continues
    across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 371, and conditions are being
    monitored for an additional watch that will likely be needed across central/southwest portions of NM by 2030z.

    DISCUSSION...Strong/severe storms were in progress as of 1925z in
    the vicinity of the TX/NM border west/southwest of Lubbock. These
    storms were along a slow-moving front/outflow boundary, where strong
    MLCAPE and 25-30 kts of northerly shear will support a continued
    severe risk with both supercell and multicell/cluster storm
    structures. Hail up to the size of half dollars and measured gusts
    to 65 mph have recently been reported, and severe hail and damaging
    winds will remain possible this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm
    development is likely over the watch area during next few hours in
    the largely uncapped environment, aided by frontal/outflow boundary
    convergence and a moist upslope flow.

    Farther west, Isolated thunderstorms have developed over the higher
    terrain over north-central and south-central/southwest NM, where
    seasonably high moisture has contributed to moderate buoyancy.=20
    Northerly mid-level flow will also favor organized storms this
    afternoon and evening with severe hail and wind likely with the
    strongest storms. Convective trends are being monitored for the
    possibility of an additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch prior to
    2030z.

    ..Bunting/Guyer.. 07/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r-IU8bKxkPn7MCoTL-oOW8ZU0c-xFOQOnEFvy5mkNotB4EAwxsTMiEHI54VH0298DLk2qZ2p$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 35550766 36320634 35980534 34610516 34190365 33640189
    32890182 31680185 31830302 31900433 31780587 31830667
    32400898 35550766=20



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