• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1256

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 11 18:06:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111806
    SPC MCD 111805=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1256
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0105 PM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

    Areas affected...Far Southeastern Ohio...Western
    Pennsylvania...Northern West Virginia...and Western Maryland

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 111805Z - 111900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and
    intensity this afternoon across the area posing a threat for
    damaging winds and a brief tornado or two. A watch is likely.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating has occurred across the area this
    morning/early afternoon ahead of minor perturbations moving across
    Ohio in southwesterly flow aloft. Consequently, modest
    destabilization is occurring in the presence of upper 60s F
    dewpoints, resulting in around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE per the latest
    mesoanalysis. The VAD profile at PBZ indicates that midlevel flow
    is around 40 knots, which should support at least brief updraft organization/rotation.=20=20

    Thunderstorms associated with midlvel perturbations are beginning to
    intensify across southern Ohio and should continue to organize they
    move into a more favorable environment to the northeast. In
    addition, more isolated/discrete storms may also form out ahead in
    the warm sector, as the warm front continues to retreat northward.=20
    These storms will primarily pose a threat of damaging winds, but the
    low-level shear is also sufficient to support the potential for a
    brief tornado or two.

    ..Jirak/Guyer.. 07/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pyzCG7PGU1vJ69ex7FPm0BWYwiJhEwcXZmfWwjAX2UK88qsR9CttiATUimuRJkKbIWp0uA9l$=
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    LAT...LON 39268109 39798094 40278077 40738057 40968015 41217947
    41217847 41117781 40777745 40507741 39977764 39547801
    39277843 38937932 38958077 39268109=20

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