• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1255

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 11 16:49:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111649
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111648=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-111815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1255
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1148 AM CDT Sun Jul 11 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast NM...far West TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 111648Z - 111815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A small area of strong/severe storms may continue for the
    next few hours with damaging winds and large hail the primary risks.
    Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is
    possible prior to 18z.

    DISCUSSION...A small area of severe thunderstorms has developed over
    portions of Chaves and Lea Counties in southeast NM since 15z.=20
    Seasonably high low-level moisture and substantial heating have
    resulted in moderate/strong MLCAPE, and northwesterly mid-level flow
    averaging 20 kts is sufficient for updraft organization. In the
    short term, these storms may persist and congeal into a small
    cluster while moving generally south/southeast, with a continued
    severe wind/hail risk given destabilization of the downstream
    environment and strengthening effective shear values this afternoon.


    Convective trends are being monitored, and a watch is possible prior
    to 18z.

    ..Bunting/Guyer.. 07/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tVKto5cU_W98F-E5z6HfHHRgxafBCL7oaXUyGpqVUSOV47_O-63U9dOmlO-CC_vOxpgzeO-R$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 32650480 33480404 33500370 33190278 32020279 31350311
    31030355 30870408 31240497 32650480=20



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