• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1252

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jul 11 02:49:36 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 110249
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110249=20
    NMZ000-110415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1252
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0949 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 110249Z - 110415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and perhaps a strong wind gust will be
    possible with near surface-based supercells moving southeastward in
    northeast New Mexico. No WW is expected.

    DISCUSSION...A few supercells have developed along the Sangre de
    Cristo Mountains in northeast New Mexico. With perhaps only subtle
    upper-level support, the longevity of this activity is in question.
    However, under this steep mid-level lapse rate, northwest flow
    regime, 35-40 kts of effective shear could help sustain these
    southeastward moving storms longer than expected. Should storms
    persist they would encounter greater buoyancy. Isolated large hail
    would likely be the main threat with these storms, though a strong
    wind gust could also occur before surface stabilization becomes
    stronger. Given the uncertainty, no WW is expected.

    ..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vyzHAv_WlBzXbCZtbeYJY-_dFOXc18BhFJGNTCXwlfwlS_RCHxxxUqMy1pYZpZ7nTxFAsTK6$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 36020525 36330548 36720489 36390395 35620322 35260326
    35040379 34940433 36020525=20



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