Mesoscale Discussion 1252
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0949 PM CDT Sat Jul 10 2021
Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 110249Z - 110415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and perhaps a strong wind gust will be
possible with near surface-based supercells moving southeastward in
northeast New Mexico. No WW is expected.
DISCUSSION...A few supercells have developed along the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains in northeast New Mexico. With perhaps only subtle
upper-level support, the longevity of this activity is in question.
However, under this steep mid-level lapse rate, northwest flow
regime, 35-40 kts of effective shear could help sustain these
southeastward moving storms longer than expected. Should storms
persist they would encounter greater buoyancy. Isolated large hail
would likely be the main threat with these storms, though a strong
wind gust could also occur before surface stabilization becomes
stronger. Given the uncertainty, no WW is expected.
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